David X Martin

Each of the animals in The Nature of Risk approaches risk differently. The black bear is oblivious to risk, believing he’s so big and powerful that nothing can harm him. The deer believe that their speed, and the judgment of the buck, will allow them to escape any risk. The red squirrel, instead, believes that with his oak tree full of acorns he’ll never be at risk of not having enough to eat.

Of all the animals in the forest, however, the animal whose approach to risk management is most familiar to us is the turtle—i.e., just pull your head back and hope for the best. Do you keep your head in your shell?

The Nature of Risk takes place in a small valley deep in the forest. Some of the animals mistakenly believe they’ve protected themselves from risk (like the red squirrel with his enormous store of acorns), while others believe they can avoid risk by taking off at the first sign of danger (like the deer). But as ineffective as their risk management strategies are–at least in the face of a true disaster–the animal in the greatest danger is the black bear, who’s completelyoblivious to risk. As recent events have made all too clear no one is big enough or strong enough to ignore risk, and those who think they are run the greatest risk of all.

The story at the heart of The Nature of Risk follows not only the lives of individual animals in the forest, but groups of animals too. One of those groups is a herd of white-tailed deer, led by a regal buck with unquestioned authority. No matter where he leads the other deer follow.

Blindly following the herd is certainly easier than plotting your own course, but you might end up somewhere you’d rather not be.

This month’s online edition of Edge Magazine includes a brief quiz for those who haven’t yet read The Nature of Risk. Click on the link above to see how well you can match the animals to their natural risk profiles.

In The Nature of Risk the Red Squirrel is a “larder-hoarder,” and keeps all of his acorns stored in one place. The Gray Squirrel, instead, is a “scatter-hoarder,” and keeps small stores of nuts and seeds scattered throughout the forest.

Before you invest your assets, or decide where to keep them, give some thought to which approach is best for you.

The first lesson of The Nature of Risk is “know thyself,” and toward that end the short story at the heart of the book introduces seven animals (a red squirrel, a rabbit, a rat snake, a woodpecker, a gray squirrel, a turtle, and a red fox) and two groups of animals (a herd of white-tailed deer and a colony of beavers), all of whom have different approaches to risk management.

Today’s blog post concerns the red fox. Alone among the animals of the forest she understands that her family may need more than one way out of their den, given the various risks in the forest, and so she creates a number of different exits before trouble occurs.

Have you prepared exit strategies should things go wrong, or will you have to decide what to do on the spur of the moment, when thinking clearly will be difficult?

The Nature of Risk is a short, entertaining story designed to help readers face one of modern life’s most important and difficult tasks—confronting risk. Free of complicated theories or formulas, The Nature of Risk relies instead on a cast of familiar, forest-dwelling animals, each of which embodies a different approach to risk management. At least one of these approaches will seem familiar to every reader—whether they knew they had an approach to risk management or not. Then, as the narrative unfolds, the strengths and weaknesses of each approach will be put to a series of natural tests. Finally, at the conclusion of the story, readers will find a short review section designed to help them frame their first attempts at managing risk—with or without professional help.

I hope you enjoy it, and learn from it.